The Appalachian Regional Commission, a federal agency that duplicates other federal agencies, has had many near-death experiences and one profound revelation: buy PR. The most recent ARC-sponsored study was supposed to show that Appalachian Development Highways were a good investment. As expected, the study found a positive benefit-cost ratio for the corridor system as a whole. But what the summary gave, the fine print took away. Analysis of the corridors showed that seven of eleven flunked.

Corridor E (I-68) from Morgantown WV to Cumberland and Hancock MD was at the bottom of the list with a 0.74 ratio of benefits to costs. That’s like throwing away a quarter and a penny of every dollar you have to spend. The highway’s long-range value as infrastructure worked out to a net loss. According to the study, any corridor with negative value and a benefit-cost ratio below 1.0 is not "feasible" or economically justifiable.

The proposed corridor that’s parallel to E, within forty miles of E, about as long as E, and in other respects similar to E, is our old threat Corridor H. Actually, regional economists say that Corridor H would be less justifiable than E, since it lacks a city the size of Cumberland or

Morgantown, its traffic would be minimal, and its construction costs would be greater. The benefit-cost ratio for Corridor H could fall below 0.5. No Treasury Secretary should permit such a disinvestment.

The study, by Wilbur Smith Associates, did not take account of environmental damage, loss of farmland, or other negative effects of sprawl. It did estimate that 16,000 jobs could be credited to the corridors that were more than 75% complete by 1995. Eighteen years after those corridors opened (on average), at a cost of $7.5 billion (in 1995 dollars), that was the "development" payoff.

Compare 16,000 jobs in the 13-state Appalachian region with the West Virginia Department of Transportation (WVDOT) consultant’s prediction that 18,000 jobs would be induced by Corridor H alone. Those jobs were to appear by 2013, eighteen years after construction was to begin. The consultant’s "full build-out" scenario was derided when it appeared; now the ARC’s study makes it look ridiculous. The final environmental impact statement dropped all job-growth predictions.

ARC’s survival depends on the corridors, since "[They] form the core of ARC’s development strategy." Three years ago, the new co-chairman, Jesse White, wanted to shift the emphasis from highways to education. That was in line with professional opinion on what works for economic development. But White’s policy was out of line with the politicians, who love to pave. They called him before their committees and told him to get back to road construction. Investing in skills and ideas didn’t fit the pork-barrel model.

However, representatives from non-Appalachian states will be reluctant to approve more billions for unjustifiable corridors. After thirty-five years, the ARC has reached the bottom of the barrel.

The roads built so far barely achieved a net positive value -- their benefit-cost ratio was 1.18. How did four successful corridors compensate for seven losers? The single best predictor of a corridor’s economic value is the presence of cities with a minimum population of 25,000. It’s the difference between Corridor G into Charleston and Corridor H into Weston.

The winners and their development magnets were: Corridor B, Asheville, NC, and Johnson City/Kingsport, TN; Corridor J, Chattanooga, TN; Corridor Q, Roanoke and Blacksburg, VA; and Corridor T, Binghamton, Elmira, and Jamestown, NY, and Erie, PA. The highway across southern New York also serves as a toll-free shortcut to Buffalo. Its 1.7 benefit-cost ratio was the highest of all. Corridor T and Corridor B are the longest ARC highways; the four winners totaled 814 miles, while the losers added up to 603 miles. Thus, more miles of reasonably-placed highways made up for the poorly-placed ones.

By 1995, a quarter of all ARC highway funds had gone to West Virginia. We had built the most expensive roads, but we had made only one good investment: 33 miles of Corridor Q through Mercer County. In the future, Corridor G may be successful, and Corridor L (current ratio 0.85) could possibly, eventually, break even. But as for Corridors D, E, and H, forget it.

What else could we have done with our billions? We could have used part to improve a network of roads through the Highlands. That would have been practical and sufficient for our traffic. Since we squandered so much money and time on a few expensive four-lanes, people here are desperate for better roads and they believe the only choice is more of the same. But the ARC study’s message is clear: don’t build new four-lanes in rural areas.

In the Fall of 1992, as WVDOT began public hearings on the revived H project, we saw an article in Cacapon, the journal of Pine Cabin Run Ecological Laboratory. "Will Corridor H Help Our Economy?" was written by Terance Rephann, then Assistant Professor at WVU’s Regional Research Institute. He had just completed a dissertation on the benefits and costs of building interstate highways through rural areas.

Rephann wrote, "The zone along Corridor H is likely to experience net negative economic impacts." If it weren’t for Rephann’s research and other studies he pointed to, WVDOT and the Federal Highway Administration would not have given up their job-growth claims for Corridor H.

Now the ARC, by implication, has admitted such highways aren’t "feasible." New research has corroborated that of Rephann. At the University of Kentucky, Amitabh Chandra and Eric Thompson examined historical data on interstate highway construction and economic activity between 1969 and 1993. They concluded that "opening new interstate highways will not increase net economic activity in nonmetropolitan regions."

The Build-It faction now leans on safety as their last, best argument. We have replied that improving two-lane roads would make them safer at far less cost, and would protect drivers on more roads than one. But there’s an additional factor: crime. Professor Rephann’s latest study, in Papers in Regional Science, establishes a direct link between new highways and crime in rural areas. The physical dangers of increased crime more than offset the corridors’ safety. That’s the final cost-benefit test that Corridor H would flunk.